Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations
This RAND report examines how U.S. Indo-Pacific Command can counter China's maritime gray zone operations in the South China Sea—maritime aggression, cyber, economic coercion, and propaganda that Beijing treats as politics rather than warfare and keeps below the threshold of armed conflict. Drawing on a literature review, an expert forum, and 45+ interviews, the authors identify four counter pathways: presence operations, transparency initiatives publicizing malign Chinese behavior, capacity-building for Southeast Asian partners, and non-lethal weapons for situations where presence isn't enough but lethal force is unwarranted. The central warning is that while the U.S. focuses on a potential kinetic war, it risks losing a gray zone conflict in which China secures effective sovereignty without firing a shot—pointing to the need for a White House–issued counter–gray zone strategy and an intelligence community effort to surface releasable information to fuel transparency operations.