Countering Violent Extremism in Nigeria: Using a Test-Message Survey to Assess Radio Programs
This RAND evaluation tested Ina Mafita, a CVE-themed radio talk show broadcast in northern Nigeria in 2018–2019 to address underlying drivers of instability and Boko Haram sympathy. Researchers recruited more than 2,000 northern Nigerians via SMS through a mobile panel and randomly assigned them to listen to either Ina Mafita or a control program, then measured shifts in beliefs about role models, the value of local committees in reintegrating at-risk youth, and attitudes toward kidnap victims.
The show had a clear positive effect on listeners' belief in the importance of being a role model and a smaller, non-significant positive effect on confidence in local reintegration committees, but no effect on views of kidnap victims and zero or possibly negative effects on valuing diversity—a theme the show did not actually address. Listeners enjoyed the program, though awareness could be expanded. The authors recommend supplementing SMS-based surveys, which are cheap and reach remote areas but limit question depth, with face-to-face interviews, focus groups, and computer-assisted telephone surveys to get richer signal on what's actually moving.