Searchable Publication List

Detecting Conspiracy Theories on Social Media: Improving Machine Learning to Detect and Understand Online Conspiracy Theories

This RAND report for Google Jigsaw develops a hybrid linguistic and rhetorical machine-learning model that substantially improves detection of online conspiracy theory language, and argues that because conspiracy theories often hook into legitimate concerns and "us versus them" framings, direct contradiction backfires—making transparent empathetic engagement, correction of false news, outreach to moderate adherents, and addressing underlying fears more effective responses.

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Terrorism, United States, Survey Todd Helmus Terrorism, United States, Survey Todd Helmus

Prevalence of Veteran Support for Extremist Groups and Extremist Beliefs: Results from a Nationally Representative Survey of the U.S. Veteran Community

This RAND survey of nearly 1,000 veterans finds no evidence that the veteran community as a whole supports violent extremism at higher rates than the general public, but flags that most veterans endorsing political violence (17.7%) are not tied to any specific group—leaving them potentially exposed to recruitment by emerging movements—with Marine Corps veterans showing the highest support across services.

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U.S. Military Todd Helmus U.S. Military Todd Helmus

Life as a Private: A Study of the Motivations and Experiences of Junior Enlisted Personnel in the U.S. Army

This RAND Arroyo Center study of 81 junior enlisted soldiers finds that they join for family, institutional, and occupational reasons, value camaraderie and small-unit leadership above all, and report broad satisfaction with Army life—pointing to recommendations around foregrounding social bonds in the Army Value Proposition and reenlistment messaging, peer-network recruiting incentives, and more accurate pre-enlistment information.

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Countering Russian Social Media Influence

This RAND report frames Russian social media disinformation as a "disinformation chain" from Kremlin leadership through proxies and platforms to U.S. consumers, and argues that fragmented countermeasures across government, platforms, NGOs, and academia need to be replaced by clear norms, executive-legislative coordination, formal government-platform information sharing, greater platform transparency, and defensive measures prioritized over punitive ones.

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Countering Violent Extremism in Nigeria: Using a Test-Message Survey to Assess Radio Programs

This RAND report was part of a ground breaking set of studies that experimentally tested the impact of State Department counter violent extremism programs. This study, in a first of its kind, used text message surveys to assess the impact of CVE radio programs in Nigeria.

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Tweeting Out Surveys to Pro-Ukraine Influencers: Exploring the Potential for Enlisting Support in the Information Fight Against Russia

This RAND survey of pro-Ukraine and pro-Russia Russian-language Twitter activists finds pro-Ukraine users already pushing back against Russian influence online and offline and open to outside training and support, pointing to a brand ambassador model for connecting influential activists with training, content, and coordinated counter-influence efforts.

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Russian Propaganda Hits Its MarkExperimentally Testing the Impact of Russian Propaganda and Counter-Interventions

We RAND randomized controlled trial using actual Russian propaganda finds that the content reliably elicits strong partisan reactions but that revealing its Russian source and showing a brief media literacy video reduce engagement—especially among Partisan Left and Partisan Right audiences—pointing to source-unmasking tools, generalized warnings, inoculation approaches, and scalable social media literacy as viable countermeasures.

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From Consensus to Conflict: Understanding Foreign Measures Targeting U.S. Elections

This RAND report places Russian information efforts in the long history of foreign interference in U.S. politics and argues for replacing the field's fragmented focus on content, networks, or consumers with a holistic approach that anticipates likely target groups and builds evidence-based preventive practices around them.

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Foreign Interference in the 2020 Election: Tools for Detecting Online Election Interference

This RAND report, the second in a series on foreign election interference, maps Twitter advocacy communities around the 2020 election and identifies likely interference through trolls and superconnector accounts that—while not definitively attributable—serve Russian interests and match Moscow's playbook of sowing division, with the authors recommending continued innovation in detection methods and public surfacing of threats, targets, and tactics.

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Terrorism, Philippines Todd Helmus Terrorism, Philippines Todd Helmus

Countering Violent Extremism in the Philippines: A Snapshot of Current Challenges and Responses

This RAND report surveys the threat picture and CVE programming in the Philippines, finding that entrenched poverty, communal divisions, and government grievances continue to drive radicalization while heavy-handed government counterterrorism risks fueling it further, non-kinetic government programs suffer from poor credibility and coordination, and nongovernmental efforts produce some wins but operate as microcampaigns without rigorous evaluation built in.

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Promoting Peace as the Antidote to Violent Extremism: Evaluation of a Philippines-Based Tech Camp and Peace Promotion Fellowship

This RAND evaluation of Equal Access International's Mindanao CVE training and Peace Promotion Fellowship finds high participant satisfaction and successful community-based projects, and recommends tighter program design, more dedicated coaching staff, contingency planning, attention to fellow credibility, and more rigorous evaluation.

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Social Media Todd Helmus Social Media Todd Helmus

The Role of Communication and Network Technologies in the Dynamics of Social Movements

This simulation study finds that communication technologies that spark spontaneous interaction help ignite social movements while networking technologies accelerate their intermediate-stage growth (with outreach proving most effective once agents can actively join), and that authorities can develop highly accurate beliefs about movements simply by observing network links rather than individual actors.

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